By the end of September the government will launch the 2007 Budget, to enter in the topic, place the letter of Oscar Giannino the newspaper "Libero" that says a lot about what the country will face ..
Dear Editor, The Passion of Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa has officially begun. Francesco Giavazzi had warned, a little 'how those disciples that Jesus was also very worried that in Jerusalem, if I had written and he confirmed that was to take her painful fate. But now the Minister of Finance is ideally entered his Gethsemane. He began to sweat blood, dealing with the division into two which will inevitably be open in the center-Governor and now that the promises of the budget document is frightening to see action. Without heavy, seeing as he has written is not an enemy of the Olive, but schieratisismo Luigi Spaventa, assume a single financial intervention of almost three percentage points of GDP in corrections spending, two-thirds of containment and its trend third-funded interventions Development is never - ever be said - could anyone in the history of the Republic. Mission: Impossible, has decreed Spaventa. Or rather, in history there is always a first time. And now just started the passion of the former central banker, and no party with a single score: the show will be his first time. O scorer serious about what he promised in the budget document, and it would be a Hercules, or inevitably defeated dimidiato, resized, and afflicted.
Of course, in politics there is always the middle way. That is to say that the actual budget document duly respected, but maybe put some diluted in two years, at the other three, on others in six months. Politicians in the long run of maggioranza lo sanno, che la politica offre assai più soluzioni di quanto credano i rigidi ex banchieri centrali. Ed è per questo che gli esponenti di Rifondazione, dei Comunisti italiani, dei Verdi e persino Mastella, hanno formato il Gran Sinedrio che ha decretato la Passione di San Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa. Martire del suo stesso rigore. Dicono che il ministro ieri, negli incontri preparatori che ha avuto a Palazzo Chigi col premier e con Bersani l'unico che lo aveva difeso, mentre lo stesso Prodi considerava l'ipotesi di diluire la manovra come «un'opzione» - sia stato chiarissimo. Cortese e disponibile nella forma, a esaminare ogni possibilità di intervento "sociale" aggiuntivo per accontentare l'ala sinistra del governo. Ma al contempo very determined, in reminding everyone that there is no alternative: the 35 billion euro are to jump out and all in 2007. From Brussels PadoaSchioppa had forewarned the weekend, which would have helped, and he has accepted it willingly. And here is the explanation of the notice issued yesterday by Amelia Torres, spokesman for the European Commissary for economic and monetary affairs Joaquin Almunia, who has formally asked the government that there is no possibility of slippage of one year, the promised return of the Italian deficit below 3 % of GDP in 2007. To all intents and purposes, as the angel in Gethsemane is strength in Jesus, why not take away from him the bitter cup and get ready to torment that awaits him.
Beyond the personal credibility of Padoa-Schioppa, who discovers to his cost what can be slippery politics than dry truth of the numbers in front of us there are three quite different ways. The alternative is that the first minister Padoa-Schioppa has decided to take just taken office, indeed well before, say his friends. It is the way of drama, which has been to constantly say that the Italian public finances were in tragic conditions, like in 1992 where they are likely to tumble. According to the dramatized, credibility Italian was giving away to Brussels in i13% would be returned to the first financial year profit. And, for the bargain, we contract l'impegno a passare da mezzo punto al 5% di Pil di avanzo primario entro i12009-2010. È figlia di questa logica drammatizzante, la contabilità del Dpef che tanto aveva soddisfatto la maggioranza il primo giorno, perché in linea con la campagna elettorale e con la propaganda declinista-tragiediatrice sviluppata dal centrosinistra per un lustro intero. Apparentemente, ora, l'impegno preso va semplicemente rispettato. Ma attenzione, il diavolo si nasconde nei dettagli. Perché in realtà si è scoperto che il centrodestra non ha affatto lasciato un buco non dichiarato di 2,3 punti percentuali del Pil, come fece l'Ulivo nel 2001 dichiarando che il deficit post-Amato sarebe stato l0 0,8% mentre fu del 3,1%. L'andamento dei conti pubblici nel primo semestre, grazie all'ultima finanziaria di Tremonti, vede in realtà una spesa pubblica sensibilmente contenuta rispetto al 2005, ed entrate che crescono in percentuale addirittura sette volte superiore alla crescita dell'economia italiana, anch'essa non a zero ma in ripresa. Risultato: Padoa-Schioppa è il primo a sapere che, avvalendosi della virtù di bilancio di Tremonti e della crescita italiana - se non si affloscia - la correzione da apportare ai conti pubblici 2007 perché il deficit non si discosti significativamente dal 3% del Pil non richiede affatto correzioni come quelle indicate nel Dpef. A quel punto Bruxelles sarebbe sostanzialmente contenta, ragionano a Palazzo Chigi, e l'impegno di fondo di risanamento mantenuto. Perché So really the devil board 's business to influence deep into central and local government spending in 2007, when you can open one thousand tables for concerted actions and results during the year and the next two years?
The second way is, of course, realism redistributionist. It is not supported from the wing opponent of the majority, which is still on un'altraposizione. And the position of Mastella and many margheritici ds and that, at present, prefer to keep quiet. They know - who at least know each other enough to master the public finance sector expenditure projections by sector - i13% of that deficit can be achieved with little say 'more than half of the goal set by Budget document. And they ask themselves: why take it seriously from the first year the aim of achieving a multi-year primary surplus equal to 5% of GDP by 2010, which is ultimately the only real factor that tends to ADOA-Schioppa have indicated corrections so severe from the start? Prodi also, if you request. For this opened the door to the hypothesis of the coating of the targets. In the more enlightened among them, there is only a desire to avoid the resistance of local authorities and trade unions to cut too much energy. There is a basic question: it makes sense to affect more than the minimum required in the expenditure, when the Italian growth is shy and needs to be sustained, even more so in light of the American braking which could freeze the expectations of global growth from month to month, making us slip back into a growth of only a few decimal point? For this, the party of realism PadoaSchioppa redistributionist aims to convince not to make too many quirks, and take him first scarcely more conciliatory approach. That is why the minister jumped the nerves, Giavazzi when it pinched. Not so much for PRC clearly indicates that every day that the rigor is there. But because it is primarily between the "reformists" in theory his closest allies, that the figures of Padoa-Schioppa less convincing today than they did just a month ago. We think Visco, says the reformist wing, to find a few billion di curo di saldo primario in più, alzando le imposte sulle compravendite finanzarie e rimodulando le aliquote intermedie dell'ex Irpef Magari restituiamo nell'esercizio successivo ciò che nel 2007 raccattiamo di gettito fiscale in più grazie alla lotta ai rentiers del centrodestra, dice l'a-la realista-redistribuzionista: ma intanto nel 2007 possiamo così correggere un po' di spesa pubblica senza però esagerare, caro Padoa-Schioppa.
Poi c'è la terza via. Quella del partito redistribuzionista lacrime e sangue. L'ala antagonista del governo, quella che non capisce perché mai devono valere solo gli impegni programmatici richiamati nel Dpef, e non quelli sottoposti agli elettori. Che promettevano appunto introduzione piena di tutti gli ammortizzatori sociali a chi oggi ne è sprovvisto, riduzione dello scalone previdenziale ma senza rivedere i coefficienti parametrali della riforma Dini, assunzione dei precari nella scuola e in tutta la pubblica amministrazione, più fondi pubblici alle famiglie e per i figli, al Sud e agli immigrati. Nel program-ma dell'Unione, in effetti, c'è tutto. E le risorse per farlo, se interrogate gli antagonisti di governo, vengono indicate in zero curo di tagli alla spesa pubblica e fino a 50 miliardi di curo di nuovo prelievo fiscale "socialmente mirato". Roba che la crescita italianà ne verrebbe messa in frigorifero: ma a loro non preoccupa, tanto ti rispondono che il Pil non è l'indicatore della felicità e della giustizia di un Paese, as it says Amartya Sen. The new Ulysses and the Sirens its hard to say, my director, which of the three parties will win. At a rough guess, for those who know that the Italian policy of tears has not granted even to that master of the ironworks which Berlusconi was the most serious among the observers are betting a mix between the first and second intermediate path. It depends on how Padoa-Schioppa will be concave with convex with concave and convex. That's why it should be noted that ten years ago he wrote at the conclusion of a slim volume entitled The government of the economy. Politics is like Ulysses, he wrote, and Ulysses has to be tied, but resist the siren song. Why else would not resist the temptations of spending, and loses the ability to drive the boat. "The government is a strong 'urge to follow the reasons of the heart, to deliver today what will be produced tomorrow to consider a command or an authorization that would outweigh the reasons for the sad science, economics." Now that Ulysses has become him, Padoa-Schioppa touches to be tied. And show us all the way, if you really resist the siren song. Otherwise, do not touch the Homer. But Giavazzi daughters who sings. And we voters who play the daughters.
Oscar Giannino
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